Australia’s low birth rate is projected to fall further, with deaths expected to outnumber births by the 2060s as housing insecurity and other factors lead people to delay having children, making migration the main driver of population growth in the decades ahead.
That’s according to the Australian Treasury’s 2026 Intergenerational Report (IGR), released on Sept. 21.
It is the first time an intergenerational report has predicted more deaths than births in Australia.
Previous reports predicted the fertility rate would settle at 1.62 children per woman in the next four decades.
“Australia’s population will age more quickly and grow more slowly than projected in the 2023 IGR, due primarily to lower fertility rates—a trend common across advanced economies,” the report stated.
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“Deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s—the first time this has been forecast in an IGR—at which point natural increase will no longer be a driver of population growth.”
Nations including Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea have already reached the point where deaths are outnumbering births and many other advanced economies are expected to follow, the report said.
The report also showed that by the 2060s, the majority of Australia’s population growth will be through net overseas migration, with a population of around 39.3 million people by 2065-66.
In 2062-63, the projected population will be 1.8 million people fewer than predicted by the 2023 IGR report.
This year’s report identified a number of factors contributing to lower birth rates, including housing insecurity, delays in forming relationships and having children, longer periods spent living with parents, greater access to contraception, and more time spent on careers and study.
The share of women having at least one child has remained stable, however, the postponement of childbearing is taking longer, leading to smaller family sizes and general population decline.
“This IGR’s projections show that in 2066, Australians are expected to live longer, healthier lives, with higher living standards and more secure retirements,” he said.
“A the same time, families will have fewer kids, the population will grow more slowly and our industries will be transformed by artificial intelligence and clean energy.”
Pro-Birth Group Calls for Government to Act
Population Advocacy Group Pronatalism Australia rebutted claims by Treasurer Chalmers that the declining fertility rate makes a solid case for migration.
“Young Australians are delaying or forgoing children because housing is out of reach, the cost of raising a family keeps climbing and they don’t have adequate support,” he said.
“Many also feel too uncertain about the future to commit. Governments can do something about all of that.”
Glover also said migration was a “band-aid” to the nation’s population woes.
“It can temporarily fill some gaps in the workforce, but it can’t fill a gap between the generations,” he said.
“Without structural reform that makes it easier to start and raise a family, Australia has no path to intergenerational continuity.”
