Bail Breaches Surge as Victoria’s Overall Crime Rate Falls

Signage on a police vehicle in Melbourne, Australia on Sept. 16, 2022. AAP Image/Diego Fedele

New Crime Statistics Agency data shows shoplifting and breach of bail offences rose significantly in the last 12 months in Victoria.

Breach of bail condition offences rose 215 percent from 5,473 to 17,250 in the year up to June 2026, while shoplifting offences increased 2.7 percent, driven largely by Victorians stealing grocery items.

In total, offences recorded by police fell 2.1 percent to 624,624. The rate of recorded offences, which adjusts for population growth, fell 3.8 percent to 8,679.6 per 100,000 Victorians.

However, alleged offender incidents rose 6.6 percent to 195,572, lifting the rate 4.6 percent to 3,062.1 per 100,000 people.

Alleged offender incidents involving shoplifting rose 9.3 percent to 21,306. Theft-related alleged offender incidents overall increased 4.3 percent to 44,544.

Criminal incidents dropped 2.9 percent to 468,070 and the incident rate fell 4.6 percent to 6,504.2 per 100,000 Victorians. The victimisation rate decreased 7.6 percent.

Person-related victim reports were down 6.0 percent, largely because of fewer thefts, while family incidents declined 3.4 percent.

“Despite an increase in shoplifting offences, property crime is down overall, driven by decreases in burglary and other theft offences,” Crime Statistics Agency Chief Statistician Fiona Dowsley said.

The Victorian government said the data showed crime was falling across Victoria.

“Crime is going in a new direction under the Carroll Labor Government: down,” Police Minister Paul Edbrooke said.

“We are delivering more police, tougher laws, stronger powers and serious consequences.”

Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny added, “Bail refusals are up, bail applications are down, crime is falling—tough bail is working.”

However, the state Opposition said the new data had sealed Labor’s legacy of “failure on crime”, pointing to a 16 percent increase in family violence-related serious assaults and a 6 percent rise in prohibited and controlled weapons offences, including those involving machetes.

“Under Labor, cops are down, crime is up and Victorians are living in fear,” Opposition Leader Jess Wilson said.

“Being weak on crime is in Labor’s DNA—but my team has a plan to reduce crime and keep Victorians safe.”

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