One Nation Leader Senator Pauline Hanson is seen with people attending the Australia Marches rally during Australia Day celebrations in Brisbane, Australia on Jan. 26, 2026. AAP Image/Darren England
New polling of more than 8,400 Australian voters reveals the conservative-leaning One Nation could threaten to take 46-55 of the 128 federal lower house seats if an election were held now.
Under the new modelling, Labor still holds the majority with 77-86 seats, but One Nation leads the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in all its seats, while making inroads into suburban seats that surround Australia’s major cities—electorates that swung to Labor at the last election.
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