Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan prepares to appear at the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on June 16, 2026. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang
The federal budget watchdog says construction of the proposed high-speed rail line between Toronto and Quebec City could cost up to $23 billion more than the federal government’s current projections.
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) issued a report on Oct. 1 that estimates the projected expenses associated with the federal government’s proposed Alto high-speed rail line along the Toronto-Quebec City corridor.
Alto, a federal Crown corporation, is leading development of the Alto High-Speed Rail Project, which has been referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO) as part of the federal government’s efforts to advance major infrastructure projects.
Preliminary government estimates for the project fall between $60 billion and $90 billion.
However, the PBO is warning that construction costs are heavily subject to large-scale infrastructure uncertainties and will more likely range from $75 billion to $113 billion, without the newly proposed Kingston stop.
“This analysis does not scope in the Government’s announcement on June 22, 2026, that it may amend its preferred route to pass through Kingston,” the report reads. “Such a route change is expected to increase uncertainty beyond the baseline route due to the counter-balancing effects of easier geography for construction but higher density of regional populations and greater ecological sensitivity, which are discussed in general terms in this report.”
Potential Cost Increases
Evidence from other regions demonstrates that substantial infrastructure undertakings like the Alto rail line carry considerable unpredictability and risk, the PBO says.
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Cutting through the hard, rocky terrain of the Canadian Shield presents substantial engineering challenges that have historically escalated costs in other major rail projects, the report says, noting that approximately 130 kilometres between Ottawa and Peterborough could be Shield terrain.
The report assumes extensive rock cutting, grading, and filling would be required to accommodate the 300-kilometre-per-hour trains and noted that project delays could add roughly $1.5 billion to the total cost for every year the project is held up.
It also identifies infrastructure like the proposed 15-kilometre tunnel into Montreal as carrying significant risk for construction delays and budget overruns, as well as elevated structures like bridges and raised tracks.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the rail proposal as a costly “boondoggle” and has raised concerns about the potential impact on farmland and private property. He said during a spring press conference that the project would disrupt communities and affect the quality of life of “residents who will not even get to use the train because it won’t have any stops near their homes.”
Carney has defended the project, saying it would benefit the national economy.
“When you look at the overall [picture], what the high-speed rail does is it’s more cost-effective, it’s more sustainable, it’s connecting our communities, it’s going to be faster,” Carney told a news conference in Brampton, Ont., this spring.
He said it would create more than 50,000 jobs directly and contribute more than $35 billion to Canada’s GDP.
Carney referred Alto to the MPO last fall to fast-track engineering, regulatory, and permitting processes, targeting an accelerated construction start.
